The enigma of eVTOLs
The eVTOL market is beset by claims and counterclaims but what is the current state of leading eVTOL programmes?
For some, the eVTOL market is a bed of technological innovation, offering the potential to disrupt transport through faster, more direct aerial pathways. One is Captain Fahad ibne Masood, a senior analyst at the Advanced Air Mobility Institute.
As Captain Masood expounds, “the commercial aviation market, especially urban air mobility and regional travel, will significantly increase in the long-term due to rising congestion in urban areas, as well as the need for faster and more eco-friendly modes of transport,” he says.
“Cargo delivery also has substantial opportunity for near-term adoption, spurred by the growth of e-commerce and the high demand for efficient first as well as last-mile delivery in urban and remote areas. eVTOL technology will have immense early market effect in the defense industry for reconnaissance, troop and equipment transport, search and rescue, and medical evacuation missions.”
Others are more sceptical, believing the eVTOL market is mired in unrealistic forecasts and timelines, which have obscured the reality of developing, certifying and delivering a new clean-sheet aircraft.
These commentators can point to the failure of Lilium, which has once again entered into insolvency, having failed to find further financing, due to “technical difficulties in accessing infrastructure funds.”
But such divergent sentiment highlights the uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of the market, and its near-term volatility and long-term potential. It also begs the question, has the enthusiasm surrounding the eVTOL sector surpassed its actual development stage?
With so much fog surrounding eVTOLs, what is the reality?
A degree of transparency is provided by the Advanced Air Mobility Reality Index, a rating tool, based on a proprietary formula that uses publicly available information as well as expert knowledge to assess the industry entrants’ progress toward the delivery of a certified product at mass scale production. The tool is un-biased and data-based and not meant as an endorsement or a critique of any specific company, but as a simple, easy-to-use guide to the complexities of the AAM industry.
It rates EHang, Joby and Archer as best placed on the path to commercialisation.
Certification momentum
EHang has made some important strides, becoming the first company in China to gain certification for autonomous eVTOL passenger flights.
At the end of March this year, EHang and Heyi Aviation and its joint venture company in Hefei, HeYi Aviation have been granted the first batch of Air Operator Certificates (OC) for civil human-carrying pilotless aerial vehicles by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC).
Under the definition by CAAC, passenger Transportation refers to airline operators using CAAC-compliant civil aircraft to engage in commercial flight services for transporting passengers. Conversely, human-carrying refers to airline operators using CAAC-compliant civil aircraft to carry individuals other than crew members and personnel essential to flight operations, engaging in commercial flight services that are not classified as passenger carrying.
The initial phase of autonomous EH216-S operations is primarily focused on air tourism, urban sightseeing, and flight experiences, as per the OC. Initially, these certifications cover flights that take off and land at the same location (Point A-to-A routes) for human-carrying tourism and flight experiences.
The OC categorises operations as “Hovering Flight”, which includes hovering, circling, and return flights near the designated take-off and landing zones.
According to EHang, the two certified operators are prepared to offer paid human-carrying tourism and flight experience services along designated routes. Simultaneously, in coordination with the CAAC, relevant strategies are being formulated to synchronously apply for human-carrying sightseeing and experience flights from Point A to Point B. Building on the obtained OCs, the process will gradually be promoted to higher level of flight operations.
Joby Aviation asserts it has made significant progress on the fourth stage of the type certification process to date, for its electric air taxi which is designed to carry a pilot and up to four passengers at speeds of up to 200 mph.
According to the company, during 2024, it saw a 12-percentage point increase on the Joby side and a 10 point increase on the FAA side, bringing the company to more than 53% complete on the Joby side and 31% on the FAA side. A further milestone was met with the completion of its first FAA ‘for-credit’ static load testing of the tail structure, and completion of a first Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) testing with the FAA, using Joby’s flight simulation lab and conforming flight deck to perform human factors testing with FAA pilots.
The update was made in a Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Shareholder Letter, posted in February this year.
“Completion of our first TIA testing is an acknowledgment by the FAA of the maturity of our certification program,” Joby stated. The company is preparing for flight TIA, which is planned for within the next 12 months.
In June 2024, Archer Aviation subsidiary, Archer Air, received its Part 135 Air Carrier & Operator Certificate from the FAA, allowing the company to begin operating aircraft commercially to refine its systems and procedures in advance of launching Midnight into. Archer is now one of two air taxi manufacturers in the world to have announced receipt of a Part 135 certificate from the FAA.
In addition to its Part 135 certificate, Archer has also received its Part 145 certificate from the FAA allowing it to perform specialised aircraft repair services. The FAA has also issued the final airworthiness criteria for the Midnight aircraft. The completion of the Part 135 certification process involved five rigorous stages, which entailed the submission of extensive documentation of operational manuals and procedures, as well as Archer’s pilots needing to demonstrate proficiency with those manuals and procedures under FAA observation.
Since finalising Certification Basis in May 2024, formally closing the FAA’s second phase, Archer has placed its efforts on the safety of flight activities related to its piloted aircraft, as it works with the FAA to finalise the means and methods of compliance in third phase. Specific topics that were finalised include means and methods of compliance for safety and development assurance, electric engines, batteries, high voltage systems and structural loads. Archer says it has completed 700+ flight hours on its iron bird, testing numerous potential failure modes across many of Midnight’s key systems in advance of planned for credit testing on the aircraft.
“With these activities finalised, we are now substantially complete with the compliance planning phase of the certification program,” Archer says. “We continue to be largely focused on the fourth phase of our certification program with the FAA. We now have FAA approval for ~13% of the total compliance verification documents in this final phase before type certification.”
In the UK, Vertical Aerospace has completed the second stage of piloted thrustborne testing of its full scale VX4 prototype. The company is now preparing for the VX4 to enter the penultimate phase of flight testing, wingborne flight, which can begin once the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) has expanded Vertical’s Permit to Fly. Once approved, the VX4 will take off, fly, and land like a conventional aircraft, with lift generated by its wings rather than its rotors. Transitioning from a tightly controlled test environment to more dynamic, scalable operations is a major leap forward on the path to full certification and commercial viability.
Once the aircraft has completed wingborne flight, the aircraft will have, in effect, completed a mini-certification process with this prototype. While Vertical works with the CAA to expand its Permit to Fly, the company says it will continue to perform important system and component testing as well as progressing the development of an identical full-scale prototype which will accelerate the VX4’s flight test programme and demonstration capability. Following wingborne testing, the VX4 will enter a final phase of transition testing to demonstrate its ability to switch between vertical and forward flight modes.
During Phase 2, the aircraft completed over thirty piloted test flights. Flight tests included completing successful hover and low speed flight manoeuvres, as well as executing handling and performance procedures including roll, yaw, and spot-turns.
Demonstration flights
Korea’s K-UAM Grand Challenge was launched in 2023 by Korea’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport to support the commercialisation of air taxis in the Korean market.
Over the course of a week, Joby completed a range of missions demonstrating various flight profiles and conditions, including fully wing-borne flight. Joby also demonstrated its capability to collaborate on aircraft operations with potential Korean partners ahead of future commercialisation in the country.
“Completing our first flights in Korea marks a significant milestone towards launching operations in the Korean market, where our service has incredible potential to save people time and improve connectivity in densely populated cities like Seoul and more remote areas like Jeju Province, where natural barriers complicate ground transportation,” said JoeBen Bevirt, Founder and CEO of Joby.
Korea is the third country in which Joby has received an airworthiness certification for demonstration and flight testing, following similar approvals in the US and Japan.
In recent months, EHang has successfully flown the first flight of EH216-S in Mexico, following the granting of a Special Airworthiness Certificate by Mexico’s Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC) and the successful the first urban flight of a pilotless eVTOL aircraft in Europe, in Benidorm, Spain. The flight was conducted as part of the European Union’s U-ELCOME (U-Space European Common Deployment) project, one of the flagship Digital Sky Demonstrators of the SESAR 3 JU.
The year started with an inaugural demo flight in downtown Shanghai, officially launching the regular trial operation of the eVTOL sightseeing routes by the Huangpu River at Longhua Airport in Shanghai, in preparation for the future gradual implementation and realisation of regular commercial operations in the Yangtze River Delta region centred around Shanghai.
Manufacturing progress
Behind the scenes, EHang has been made further investment in its production capacity. The latest coming via an agreement with JAC Motors and Guoxian Holdings to establish a joint venture in Hefei to construct of a state-of-the-art manufacturing base. According to the parties involved, the three partners will collaborate on R&D, manufacturing, and sales, to accelerate the technological advancements, industrialisation and production capacity growth.
Joby claims it has reached its target of achieving the capacity to build parts equivalent to one aircraft per month. According to the company, a majority of these parts are destined for testing as part of the certification process.
“We also rolled out and flew our fourth production prototype, bringing the total number of aircraft in our flight test fleet to five. Having access to a fleet of this size is unparalleled in our industry and allows us to rigorously test the performance of our aircraft while perfecting our production processes.”
Joby says that over 95% of the composite components produced on its manufacturing lines are now fully conforming and the expansion of its Marina facility remains on track. The new facility will more than double its footprint in Marina, supporting expanded manufacturing and flight training. “We remain on track to deliver the first parts from our Ohio facility in mid-2025,” the company says.
Archer has started production of its first Midnight aircraft at its 400,000 square foot aircraft manufacturing facility (ARC) in Covington, Georgia.
Archer plans to build up to 10 Midnight aircraft this year, ramping up production to a rate of two aircraft per month by the end of the year.
ARC was built in close partnership with automaker Stellantis (owner of brands including Abarth, Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, and Vauxhall). Stellantis is contributing capital, advanced manufacturing technology and expertise and experienced personnel with the goal of scaling this facility to 650 aircraft annually by 2030, as it looks to become Archer’s exclusive contract manufacturer.
Defence opportunities
According to Captain Masood, “eVTOL technology will have immense early market effect in the defense industry for reconnaissance, troop and equipment transport, search and rescue, and medical evacuation missions.”
The US Air Force launched Agility Prime, a non-traditional program seeking to accelerate the commercial market for advanced air mobility vehicles. It operates AFWERX, a program office at the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), which connects innovators across government, industry and academia.
One participant member is Archer.
“I believe the opportunity for advanced vertical lift aircraft across defense appears to be substantially larger than I originally expected,” states Adam Goldstein, Founder and CEO of Archer. “As a result, we are raising additional capital to help us invest in critical capabilities like composites and batteries to help enable us to capture this opportunity and more.”
Archer has launched Archer Defense to develop next-generation aircraft for defense applications in association with Anduril. with the first associated product planned to be a hybrid-propulsion, vertical-take-off-and landing aircraft that will target a potential program of record from the United States Department of Defense (DOD).
To support this initiative and for other general corporate purposes, Archer has raised $730 million in equity capital with participation from Stellantis, United Airlines, and institutional investors, including Wellington Management and Abu Dhabi investment holding company 2PointZero, a subsidiary of UAE’S largest listed entity, IHC.
Beta has two hybrid eVTOL aircraft in development – the MV250 and ALIA A250 VTOL, the latter flown multiple times since the autumn of 2023.
BETA’s ALIA electric aircraft has a 50-foot wingspan, a range of 250 miles with a top speed of 138 mph and is 90% quieter than a helicopter. While ALIA has the capability to transport five passengers, the Air Force aims to demonstrate its potential to support agile combat employment logistics with its payload capacity of 1,000 pounds as part of Agility Prime.
Another program participant is Joby, which has delivered a second aircraft to Edwards Air Force Base as part of our work with the US Department of Defense. The company continues to engage further with the US Air Force, with its latest step the completion of a training program covering the inspection and maintenance of Joby’s electric aircraft. The program included classroom instruction as well hands-on completion of inspections and pre-flight checks on Joby’s production prototype aircraft.
Two years ago, Joby announced that four US Air Force pilots had completed pilot training and become the first Air Force personnel to fly an eVTOL as sole remote pilot-in-command through the full flight envelope, including transition from vertical to wingborne flight.
Commercial planning
“The appetite for eVTOL operations in the Middle East, especially in UAE and Saudi Arabia, is strong and quite proactive,” says Captain Masood. “This is attributed to government policies and spending in these countries towards robust advanced mobility systems and innovation. The UAE specifically aims to spearhead leadership in advanced air mobility, as Dubai intends to operate air taxis within the metropolitan region by early 2026. Additionally, Archer Aviation also plans to commence commercial air taxi operations in the UAE by late 2025.”
To establish a pragmatic and repeatable commercialisation playbook to deploy Midnight in dozens of early adopter markets, which includes the UAE, with Abu Dhabi Aviation (ADA) Archer’s first Launch Edition customer.
Recently, the UAE’s aviation regulator, the General Civil Aviation Agency (GCAA), approved the design for the planned transformation of the Abu Dhabi Cruise Terminal helipad into a hybrid heliport for both helicopter and eVTOL aircraft operations.
Under this guidance, Archer and its partners plan to add charging infrastructure and upgrade landing and safety systems to enable use by eVTOL aircraft. By upgrading an existing facility, Archer says it can capitalise on airspace regulations, zoning and structures that are already in place, without incurring the cost and time it would take to build a bespoke vertiport.
The goal is for this location to become the first site ready for eVTOL aircraft operations in the UAE, providing direct access to the Abu Dhabi Port, the Louvre Abu Dhabi, Saadiyat Island and the Corniche.
Archer is working to transform this helipad alongside its infrastructure partner Falcon Aviation in close coordination with the GCAA, with plans to complete this transformation in the second half of 2025.
“Tremendous progress within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is also evident as EHang is conducting unmanned air taxi trials in Mecca. As for the UAE, there is active mapping of urban aerial corridors including vertiport network within Abu Dhabi and Dubai which is expected to be augmented by mid-2025. Oman is also contemplating eVTOL, placing its focus on talent and research, indicating that Muscat’s timeline is far more measured than the rapid acceleration expected in the UAE,” adds Captain Masood.
Ethiopian Airlines is also working with Archer to bring an all-electric air taxi network to the region using Archer’s Midnight aircraft. The duo will primarily focus on developing an air taxi network in the region using Midnight, the two are also exploring using Midnight for a broader range of use cases, including eco-tourism.
In 2022, Joby and Delta Air Lines announced a multi-city, commercial and operational partnership to pioneer community-to-airport transportation for customers. While the Joby/Delta partnership is mutually exclusive across the US and UK for at least five years following commercial launch, the partnership has been extended to include Virgin Atlantic in the UK.
The partnership will initially cover regional and city connections from Virgin Atlantic’s hubs at Heathrow and Manchester Airport. According to Joby, journeys in the UK could include a 15-minute flight from Manchester Airport to Leeds, or an 8-minute journey from Heathrow Airport to Canary Wharf, instead of 80 minutes by car. Over time, Joby expects to build out a network of landing locations that offer rapid and convenient travel around cities and communities throughout the UK. Joby expects to offer prices that are comparable with existing premium ground ridesharing options at launch.
While much work is ongoing to bring eVTOLs to market, for passenger carrying applications, outside of tourist rides, is there real enthusiasm from the travelling public for electric air taxis? In competition with ground ridesharing options, eVTOLs face larger fleet sizes, greater choice and more flexibility on destinations. And can pricing remain competitive and attractive?
Developers of eVTOLs may see them as a further democratisation of air travel, but it remains to be seen if eVTOLs will curry favour with the few, rather than the many.
By Alex Preston
